Butcher’s Dog Steals the Sausages

Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics!

Over recent weeks I have taken data from Taken from GOV.UK Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK and published them on Bramcote Today so we can see how the pandemic is progressing in Nottingham and Nottinghamshire. This seemed to go smoothly until this week. See:

		Authority
13/11/2020	Cases in 7 Days to 13/11/2020		14/11/2020	15/11/2020	16/11/2020	17/11/2020	18/11/2020	19/11/2020	20/11/2020	Cases in 7 Days to 20/11/2020
		Nottinghamshire
62	411	Ashfield	60	48	55	47	55	47	45	357
84	489	Bassetlaw	72	73	0	56	59	47	66	373
41	309	Broxtowe	36	43	85	38	21	18	30	271
45	396	Gedling	30	34	0	38	22	54	32	210
73	380	Mansfield	66	50	33	39	39	44	38	309
42	313	Newark and Sherwood	59	48	24	37	24	26	30	248
129	1062	Nottingham	125	120	1968	133	65	121	85	2617
32	252	Rushcliffe	53	28	0	44	24	27	21	197
		Neighbouring
47	350	Erewash	55	64	0	47	31	50	41	288
136	1178	Derby	97	218	34	118	96	84	111	758

Look at the data for 16 November. It is clear there is a huge anomaly. What has happened?

On 17 November in The Times there was a little snippet that said the figures had been “corrected”. Apparently an SOS (Save our South) went out from Home Counties’ MP’s who had spotted an error where quite a large number of cases for university students had been incorrectly recorded at their home addresses rather than at their university address. This correction was applied as a lump on 16 November rather than being applied on the result date.

This crass decision has made this week’s figures meaningless and stops us looking at detail of where the pandemic is going. It would have been better to have left the error as it was. The trends could still have been seen.

“Another fine mess Stanley!”

However being positive, it does appear that the number of cases is declining if you ignore the anomalies.

Authority	Daily number of new people tested positive reported on:														Authority									Authority
	20/10/2020	21/10/2020	22/10/2020	Authority	23/10/2020	24/10/2020	25/10/2020	26/10/2020	27/10/2020	28/10/2020	29/10/2020	Cases in 7 Days to 29/10/2020	30/10/2020	01/11/2020	02/11/2020	03/11/2020	04/11/2020	05/11/2020	06/11/2020	Cases in 7 Days to 06/11/2020		07/11/2020	08/11/2020	09/11/2020	10/11/2020	11/11/2020	12/11/2020	13/11/2020	Cases in 7 Days to 13/11/2020		14/11/2020	15/11/2020	16/11/2020	17/11/2020	18/11/2020	19/11/2020	20/11/2020	Cases in 7 Days to 20/11/2020
Nottinghamshire																					Nottinghamshire									Nottinghamshire
Ashfield	54	51	75	Nottinghamshire	50	73	60	61	61	42	72	419	52	72	48	52	40	61	55	380	Ashfield	64	61	50	67	28	79	62	411	Ashfield	60	48	55	47	55	47	45	357
Bassetlaw	47	67	55	Ashfield	34	73	42	54	59	69	64	395	75	94	48	85	62	74	104	542	Bassetlaw	72	75	51	49	58	100	84	489	Bassetlaw	72	73	0	56	59	47	66	373
Broxtowe	82	62	63	Bassetlaw	57	69	42	43	48	64	68	391	43	63	34	48	46	43	46	323	Broxtowe	53	35	45	55	23	57	41	309	Broxtowe	36	43	85	38	21	18	30	271
Gedling	96	77	75	Broxtowe	64	74	82	61	74	75	68	498	54	74	38	51	44	68	29	358	Gedling	62	62	63	52	27	85	45	396	Gedling	30	34	0	38	22	54	32	210
Mansfield	51	41	47	Gedling	90	60	39	61	51	52	67	420	75	68	42	38	59	67	74	423	Mansfield	47	61	62	65	23	49	73	380	Mansfield	66	50	33	39	39	44	38	309
Newark and Sherwood	42	30	36	Mansfield	38	42	31	46	24	50	49	280	66	45	35	24	37	57	52	316	Newark and Sherwood	51	39	53	43	24	61	42	313	Newark and Sherwood	59	48	24	37	24	26	30	248
Nottingham	314	247	244	Newark and Sherwood	203	239	195	198	183	224	205	1447	136	197	142	147	165	162	141	1090	Nottingham	175	156	165	163	68	206	129	1062	Nottingham	125	120	1968	133	65	121	85	2617
Rushcliffe	108	61	78	Nottingham	61	97	58	51	50	69	48	434	46	88	63	49	43	33	25	347	Rushcliffe	43	24	34	31	14	74	32	252	Rushcliffe	53	28	0	44	24	27	21	197
				Rushcliffe
Neighbouring				Neighbouring																	Neighbouring									Neighbouring
Erewash	50	65	58	Erewash	46	48	48	54	43	82	66	387	47	66	40	39	40	43	42	317	Erewash	34	35	60	66	32	76	47	350	Erewash	55	64	0	47	31	50	41	288
Derby	89	116	134	Derby	106	147	122	138	132	139	120	904	174	185	114	136	154	135	178	1076	Derby	150	145	207	210	108	222	136	1178	Derby	97	218	34	118	96	84	111	758

 What sort of Christmas will we have? Well you you won’t be going to the Costa Del Infectione and I would look for a smaller turkey and Christmas pudding.