Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics!
Over recent weeks I have taken data from Taken from GOV.UK Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK and published them on Bramcote Today so we can see how the pandemic is progressing in Nottingham and Nottinghamshire. This seemed to go smoothly until this week. See:
Authority | ||||||||||
13/11/2020 | Cases in 7 Days to 13/11/2020 | 14/11/2020 | 15/11/2020 | 16/11/2020 | 17/11/2020 | 18/11/2020 | 19/11/2020 | 20/11/2020 | Cases in 7 Days to 20/11/2020 | |
Nottinghamshire | ||||||||||
62 | 411 | Ashfield | 60 | 48 | 55 | 47 | 55 | 47 | 45 | 357 |
84 | 489 | Bassetlaw | 72 | 73 | 0 | 56 | 59 | 47 | 66 | 373 |
41 | 309 | Broxtowe | 36 | 43 | 85 | 38 | 21 | 18 | 30 | 271 |
45 | 396 | Gedling | 30 | 34 | 0 | 38 | 22 | 54 | 32 | 210 |
73 | 380 | Mansfield | 66 | 50 | 33 | 39 | 39 | 44 | 38 | 309 |
42 | 313 | Newark and Sherwood | 59 | 48 | 24 | 37 | 24 | 26 | 30 | 248 |
129 | 1062 | Nottingham | 125 | 120 | 1968 | 133 | 65 | 121 | 85 | 2617 |
32 | 252 | Rushcliffe | 53 | 28 | 0 | 44 | 24 | 27 | 21 | 197 |
Neighbouring | ||||||||||
47 | 350 | Erewash | 55 | 64 | 0 | 47 | 31 | 50 | 41 | 288 |
136 | 1178 | Derby | 97 | 218 | 34 | 118 | 96 | 84 | 111 | 758 |
Look at the data for 16 November. It is clear there is a huge anomaly. What has happened?
On 17 November in The Times there was a little snippet that said the figures had been “corrected”. Apparently an SOS (Save our South) went out from Home Counties’ MP’s who had spotted an error where quite a large number of cases for university students had been incorrectly recorded at their home addresses rather than at their university address. This correction was applied as a lump on 16 November rather than being applied on the result date.
This crass decision has made this week’s figures meaningless and stops us looking at detail of where the pandemic is going. It would have been better to have left the error as it was. The trends could still have been seen.
“Another fine mess Stanley!”
However being positive, it does appear that the number of cases is declining if you ignore the anomalies.
Authority | Daily number of new people tested positive reported on: | Authority | Authority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
20/10/2020 | 21/10/2020 | 22/10/2020 | Authority | 23/10/2020 | 24/10/2020 | 25/10/2020 | 26/10/2020 | 27/10/2020 | 28/10/2020 | 29/10/2020 | Cases in 7 Days to 29/10/2020 | 30/10/2020 | 01/11/2020 | 02/11/2020 | 03/11/2020 | 04/11/2020 | 05/11/2020 | 06/11/2020 | Cases in 7 Days to 06/11/2020 | 07/11/2020 | 08/11/2020 | 09/11/2020 | 10/11/2020 | 11/11/2020 | 12/11/2020 | 13/11/2020 | Cases in 7 Days to 13/11/2020 | 14/11/2020 | 15/11/2020 | 16/11/2020 | 17/11/2020 | 18/11/2020 | 19/11/2020 | 20/11/2020 | Cases in 7 Days to 20/11/2020 | |||
Nottinghamshire | Nottinghamshire | Nottinghamshire | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Ashfield | 54 | 51 | 75 | Nottinghamshire | 50 | 73 | 60 | 61 | 61 | 42 | 72 | 419 | 52 | 72 | 48 | 52 | 40 | 61 | 55 | 380 | Ashfield | 64 | 61 | 50 | 67 | 28 | 79 | 62 | 411 | Ashfield | 60 | 48 | 55 | 47 | 55 | 47 | 45 | 357 |
Bassetlaw | 47 | 67 | 55 | Ashfield | 34 | 73 | 42 | 54 | 59 | 69 | 64 | 395 | 75 | 94 | 48 | 85 | 62 | 74 | 104 | 542 | Bassetlaw | 72 | 75 | 51 | 49 | 58 | 100 | 84 | 489 | Bassetlaw | 72 | 73 | 0 | 56 | 59 | 47 | 66 | 373 |
Broxtowe | 82 | 62 | 63 | Bassetlaw | 57 | 69 | 42 | 43 | 48 | 64 | 68 | 391 | 43 | 63 | 34 | 48 | 46 | 43 | 46 | 323 | Broxtowe | 53 | 35 | 45 | 55 | 23 | 57 | 41 | 309 | Broxtowe | 36 | 43 | 85 | 38 | 21 | 18 | 30 | 271 |
Gedling | 96 | 77 | 75 | Broxtowe | 64 | 74 | 82 | 61 | 74 | 75 | 68 | 498 | 54 | 74 | 38 | 51 | 44 | 68 | 29 | 358 | Gedling | 62 | 62 | 63 | 52 | 27 | 85 | 45 | 396 | Gedling | 30 | 34 | 0 | 38 | 22 | 54 | 32 | 210 |
Mansfield | 51 | 41 | 47 | Gedling | 90 | 60 | 39 | 61 | 51 | 52 | 67 | 420 | 75 | 68 | 42 | 38 | 59 | 67 | 74 | 423 | Mansfield | 47 | 61 | 62 | 65 | 23 | 49 | 73 | 380 | Mansfield | 66 | 50 | 33 | 39 | 39 | 44 | 38 | 309 |
Newark and Sherwood | 42 | 30 | 36 | Mansfield | 38 | 42 | 31 | 46 | 24 | 50 | 49 | 280 | 66 | 45 | 35 | 24 | 37 | 57 | 52 | 316 | Newark and Sherwood | 51 | 39 | 53 | 43 | 24 | 61 | 42 | 313 | Newark and Sherwood | 59 | 48 | 24 | 37 | 24 | 26 | 30 | 248 |
Nottingham | 314 | 247 | 244 | Newark and Sherwood | 203 | 239 | 195 | 198 | 183 | 224 | 205 | 1447 | 136 | 197 | 142 | 147 | 165 | 162 | 141 | 1090 | Nottingham | 175 | 156 | 165 | 163 | 68 | 206 | 129 | 1062 | Nottingham | 125 | 120 | 1968 | 133 | 65 | 121 | 85 | 2617 |
Rushcliffe | 108 | 61 | 78 | Nottingham | 61 | 97 | 58 | 51 | 50 | 69 | 48 | 434 | 46 | 88 | 63 | 49 | 43 | 33 | 25 | 347 | Rushcliffe | 43 | 24 | 34 | 31 | 14 | 74 | 32 | 252 | Rushcliffe | 53 | 28 | 0 | 44 | 24 | 27 | 21 | 197 |
Rushcliffe | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Neighbouring | Neighbouring | Neighbouring | Neighbouring | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Erewash | 50 | 65 | 58 | Erewash | 46 | 48 | 48 | 54 | 43 | 82 | 66 | 387 | 47 | 66 | 40 | 39 | 40 | 43 | 42 | 317 | Erewash | 34 | 35 | 60 | 66 | 32 | 76 | 47 | 350 | Erewash | 55 | 64 | 0 | 47 | 31 | 50 | 41 | 288 |
Derby | 89 | 116 | 134 | Derby | 106 | 147 | 122 | 138 | 132 | 139 | 120 | 904 | 174 | 185 | 114 | 136 | 154 | 135 | 178 | 1076 | Derby | 150 | 145 | 207 | 210 | 108 | 222 | 136 | 1178 | Derby | 97 | 218 | 34 | 118 | 96 | 84 | 111 | 758 |
What sort of Christmas will we have? Well you you won’t be going to the Costa Del Infectione and I would look for a smaller turkey and Christmas pudding.