Butcher’s Dog Steals the Sausages

Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics!

Over recent weeks I have taken data from Taken from GOV.UK Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK and published them on Bramcote Today so we can see how the pandemic is progressing in Nottingham and Nottinghamshire. This seemed to go smoothly until this week. See:

  Authority        
13/11/2020Cases in 7 Days to 13/11/2020 14/11/202015/11/202016/11/202017/11/202018/11/202019/11/202020/11/2020Cases in 7 Days to 20/11/2020
  Nottinghamshire        
62411Ashfield60485547554745357
84489Bassetlaw7273056594766373
41309Broxtowe36438538211830271
45396Gedling3034038225432210
73380Mansfield66503339394438309
42313Newark and Sherwood59482437242630248
1291062Nottingham125120196813365121852617
32252Rushcliffe5328044242721197
           
  Neighbouring        
47350Erewash5564047315041288
1361178Derby97218341189684111758

Look at the data for 16 November. It is clear there is a huge anomaly. What has happened?

On 17 November in The Times there was a little snippet that said the figures had been “corrected”. Apparently an SOS (Save our South) went out from Home Counties’ MP’s who had spotted an error where quite a large number of cases for university students had been incorrectly recorded at their home addresses rather than at their university address. This correction was applied as a lump on 16 November rather than being applied on the result date.

This crass decision has made this week’s figures meaningless and stops us looking at detail of where the pandemic is going. It would have been better to have left the error as it was. The trends could still have been seen.

“Another fine mess Stanley!”

However being positive, it does appear that the number of cases is declining if you ignore the anomalies.

AuthorityDaily number of new people tested positive reported on:             Authority        Authority        
 20/10/202021/10/202022/10/2020Authority23/10/202024/10/202025/10/202026/10/202027/10/202028/10/202029/10/2020Cases in 7 Days to 29/10/202030/10/202001/11/202002/11/202003/11/202004/11/202005/11/202006/11/2020Cases in 7 Days to 06/11/2020 07/11/202008/11/202009/11/202010/11/202011/11/202012/11/202013/11/2020Cases in 7 Days to 13/11/2020 14/11/202015/11/202016/11/202017/11/202018/11/202019/11/202020/11/2020Cases in 7 Days to 20/11/2020
Nottinghamshire                    Nottinghamshire        Nottinghamshire        
Ashfield545175Nottinghamshire5073606161427241952724852406155380Ashfield64615067287962411Ashfield60485547554745357
Bassetlaw476755Ashfield34734254596964395759448856274104542Bassetlaw727551495810084489Bassetlaw7273056594766373
Broxtowe826263Bassetlaw5769424348646839143633448464346323Broxtowe53354555235741309Broxtowe36438538211830271
Gedling967775Broxtowe6474826174756849854743851446829358Gedling62626352278545396Gedling3034038225432210
Mansfield514147Gedling9060396151526742075684238596774423Mansfield47616265234973380Mansfield66503339394438309
Newark and Sherwood423036Mansfield3842314624504928066453524375752316Newark and Sherwood51395343246142313Newark and Sherwood59482437242630248
Nottingham314247244Newark and Sherwood20323919519818322420514471361971421471651621411090Nottingham175156165163682061291062Nottingham125120196813365121852617
Rushcliffe1086178Nottingham6197585150694843446886349433325347Rushcliffe43243431147432252Rushcliffe5328044242721197
    Rushcliffe                                  
Neighbouring   Neighbouring                Neighbouring        Neighbouring        
Erewash506558Erewash4648485443826638747664039404342317Erewash34356066327647350Erewash5564047315041288
Derby89116134Derby1061471221381321391209041741851141361541351781076Derby1501452072101082221361178Derby97218341189684111758

 What sort of Christmas will we have? Well you you won’t be going to the Costa Del Infectione and I would look for a smaller turkey and Christmas pudding.

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