What do we know about Brexit? What did we vote for?

Before the Referendum the Leave Campaign and the Remain Campaign both attempted to forecast the future.   Nobody can forecast the future with 100% accuracy.

I suggest that we should look back to Donald Rumsfeld’s response to questions about weapons intelligence on Iraq back in 2002.  When he said “There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don’t know we don’t know.”  

I refer you to this article by at the BBC.

We will continue to trade with the EU after we have left.  The tariffs that will possibly be imposed may be minimal compared to the 15% drop in the exchange rate that has occurred since before the Referendum.   However if the exchange rate remains at it’s current level for long our cost of living is bound to go up.  See also this BBC article and the battle between Tesco & Unilever.

When we voted on 23 June did we know what we actually wanted?   Do we want to keep the billions we give to Brussels for the NHS?  Do we want to be more democratic?  Do we want to control our UK borders?  Do we want to trade with the all the countries outside the EU without any tariffs or restrictions?   Do we want to trade with the EU without any tariffs or restrictions?  Do we want our Law Courts to be free from the influence of the European Court of Justice?  Do we want all of the above?  Is it possible that we will get all of the above?

When we voted did we know that the cost of living would go up almost immediately and before we have actually left the EU?

It might be argued that we voted with the long term in mind for say the next ten, twenty years or even fifty years time.

History has a lot to teach us.  Before we look to forecast the future we should attempt to fully understand the past.  I will just briefly mention the Ancient Greeks, Romans, Ottomans and then our own Commonwealth and Empire.

We are now where we are, stuck with Brexit, but how will it evolve?

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8 Responses to What do we know about Brexit? What did we vote for?

  1. Fred R says:

    Oh, my, given all the verbiage that’s already been written on this blog on Brexit (some of which from myself, colpa mia), this post is surely trollbait and will bring out all the usual suspects and loads of ready-rolled rants and likely generate a lot more heat than light. Why have you posted this, and what sort of discussion are you trying to achieve, Mike? I’m not having a go, honestly.

    • Mike Johnson says:

      Fred, ‘Brexit’ is the biggest decision this country has made since WW2. David Cameron and the Government did not have a Plan ‘B’. I can understand why the Government is delaying instigating Article 50 as they have to set up the departments and employ the staff to negotiate on our behalf. Before the negotiations begin the government has to sort out what kind of relationship with the EU we want when we have left. There are many and varied reasons why the 17 Million Leavers voted. Negotiations usually end up with a compromise so when the negotiations are finalised, will we satisfy all of the 17 million? Unless we inform our MP and our PM what we want and what we do not want then we will end up with what we do not want. Just voting for ‘Brexit’ did not in my opinion solve the problem but it created this period of uncertainty.

      • Fred R says:

        Ok, I’ll not disagree with that, so is the point of this post and the subsequent discussion to give our MP some idea of what Broxtowe burghers think?

        Here’s one known known, though – there will almost certainly be a second independence referendum in Scotland, as Sturgeon’s announced a “consultation” on a Referendum Bill today at the SNP conference. (BBC News story), which is little surprise to anyone I’m sure. I spend a fair bit of time North of the Border and keep my finger on the Scottish pulse, and indyref2 and Brexit are pretty much the only topics of discussion in the Scottish media the now. The referendum would have to be held quickly, before the final UK-EU divorce so that Scotland would be in with a chance of remaining/becoming a EU member state, so I’d expect it by summer next year. I’d rate the chances of a Yes vote at 1/4 or shorter, and if so independence could be in place by Spring 2018 if not sooner.

        Now, there’ll be ingnats and kippers on here who’ll basically say “bye now, jocks, dinnae haste ye back” and “good riddance”, and who’ll look forward to no longer “subsidising” Scotland. However, cooler heads will realise that Scotland going walkies and taking the oil with her will have a serious impact on the rump UK economy, and on an already weak Sterling, which is essentially a petrocurrency underpinned by oil. Worth reading is a prescient analysis from the leftish New Economics Foundation, published just before indyref1, entitled “Scottish independence, UK dependency“. There’ll also be the ‘border issue’, and if nationalist English government puts in a hard border there’ll be serious consequences for trade for both countries.

  2. Graham Taylor says:

    We have one known known now and that it the Government don’t know what to do.

  3. Ian Blakeley says:

    I agree with Fred, I don’t see the point of Mike’s post. The article by Laura Kuenssberg made an interesting read though.

  4. Barry Morrison says:

    I won’t make any comment as most things have been said before. However, I will say that now it’s over to the politicians to do what they should have ruddy well done in the last forty odd years, and that is get the best deals they can for the UK. If they can

    • Joan Wade says:

      It is hard to see how they can get the best deal for the UK Barry. The referendum vote cannot just be ignored.

  5. Ian Tyler says:

    The BBC news website comments:-

    The Government claims it can invoke Article 50 using the Royal prerogative but that is subject to a legal challenge which starts later this week. If the challenge succeeds the Government would have to pass an Act of Parliament to trigger it by introducing a Bill.
    That would certainly give MPs and peers several chances to vote. Bills have to go through several ‘readings’ in each House and there could also be attempts to amend it. And it would also mean that Parliament had real power in determining the process for Brexit. But we’ll have to wait to see the outcome of the legal process.

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