Before the Referendum the Leave Campaign and the Remain Campaign both attempted to forecast the future. Nobody can forecast the future with 100% accuracy.
I suggest that we should look back to Donald Rumsfeld’s response to questions about weapons intelligence on Iraq back in 2002. When he said “There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don’t know we don’t know.”
I refer you to this article by at the BBC.
We will continue to trade with the EU after we have left. The tariffs that will possibly be imposed may be minimal compared to the 15% drop in the exchange rate that has occurred since before the Referendum. However if the exchange rate remains at it’s current level for long our cost of living is bound to go up. See also this BBC article and the battle between Tesco & Unilever.
When we voted on 23 June did we know what we actually wanted? Do we want to keep the billions we give to Brussels for the NHS? Do we want to be more democratic? Do we want to control our UK borders? Do we want to trade with the all the countries outside the EU without any tariffs or restrictions? Do we want to trade with the EU without any tariffs or restrictions? Do we want our Law Courts to be free from the influence of the European Court of Justice? Do we want all of the above? Is it possible that we will get all of the above?
When we voted did we know that the cost of living would go up almost immediately and before we have actually left the EU?
It might be argued that we voted with the long term in mind for say the next ten, twenty years or even fifty years time.
History has a lot to teach us. Before we look to forecast the future we should attempt to fully understand the past. I will just briefly mention the Ancient Greeks, Romans, Ottomans and then our own Commonwealth and Empire.
We are now where we are, stuck with Brexit, but how will it evolve?